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Table 7.1 Simple analysis of Fr. Efia’s risk related to Vegas night at OLPS
Voitech’s question to
Fr. Efia
Fr. Efia’s answer
Resolution (if any)
1. How do you envision
the event?
I’m not sure. What do you
think? There will be food and
gambling. The Archbishop is
not happy with the gambling,
but he is willing to go along
for the sake of the event.
Let’s create a diagram of the
potential process—see Exhibit
2. What games will be
The Bowl of Treachery
We will have to think about the
odds of wining and losing in
the games. We can control the
Omnipotent Two-Sided Die
Wheel of Outrageous Destiny
3. Will all attendees play
all games?
I don’t know. What do you
think? But I do know that
I want to make things simple.
I will only allow attendees to
play a game once. I don’t
really approve of gambling
myself, but under these
special circumstances a little
won’t hurt.
Let’s consider a number of
possibilities–attendees playing
all games only once at one end
of the spectrum, and at the
other end, attendees having a
choice of the games they play
just not sure about the effect on
revenue here.
4. Will the games be the
only source of income?
No. I am also going to charge a
fee for attending. It will be a
cover charge of sorts. But, I
don’t know what to charge.
Any ideas?
Let’s consider a number of
choices and see how it affects
overall revenues.
5. How many alumni of
OLPS will attend?
It depends. Usually the weather
has a big effect on
Let’s think carefully about how
the weather will affect
6. Will there be any other
attraction to induce the
OLPS alumni to attend?
I think that we will have many
wonderful ethnic foods that
will be prepared by current
and past parishioners. This
will not cost OLPS anything.
It will be a contribution by
those who want to help. We
will make the food
concession all-you-can-eat .
In the past this has been a
very powerful inducement to
attend our events. The local
newspaper has even called it
the Best Ethnic Food Festival
in the city!
I urge you to do so. This will
make an entry fee a very
justifiable expense for
attendees. They will certainly
see great value in the excellent
food and the all-you-can-eat
format. Additionally, this will
allow us to explore the
possibility of making the entry
fee a larger part of the overall
revenue. The Archbishop
should not react negatively to
the directed flow (or steps) indicated by the arrows. The rectangles represent steps
in the process. For example, the Revenue Collected process indicates the option to
collect an attendance or entry fee to supplement overall revenues. The diamonds in
the diagram represent decision points for Fr. Efia’s design. For example, the Charge
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