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So in summary, what does the IFD tell us about our problem? If Fr. Efia wants
the event to result in larger revenues, he now knows that he will want the following
conditions:
1. Good weather to attract a higher attendance
a. we have little control of the weather
b. we can schedule events in time periods where the likelihood of good weather
is more likely
c.
the exact effect of weather on attendance is uncertain
2. Poor attendee luck leading to high gambling revenues
a. we do have control of an attendee’s luck by setting the odds of games
b. a fair game has 50–50 odds and an example of a game favoring OLPS is 60–
40 odds (60% of the time OLPS wins and 40% the attendee wins), or the odds
in favor of OLPS could possibly be higher depending on what attendees will
tolerate
3. Charge an entry admission to supplement gambling revenue
a. entry fee is a guaranteed form of revenue based on attendance, assuming there
are attendees, unlike the gambling revenue which is uncertain
b. entry fee is also a delicate matter because charging too much might dimin-
ish attendance or have it appear to be a direct request for funds that the
Archbishop is firmly against—the entry fee can be justified on the basis of
a fee for food and refreshments
As you can see, this analysis is leading to a formal design of the event (a formal
problem definition). Just what will the event look like? At this point in the design,
Voitech has skillfully directed Fr. Efia to consider all of the important issues related
to revenue generation. Fr. Efia must make some difficult choices at this point if he
is going to eventually create a model of the event. Note that he will still be able to
change his choices in the course of testing the model, but he does need to settle on
a particular event configuration to proceed with the modeling effort. Thus, we are
moving toward the final stages of phase 2, the modeling phase .
Voitech is concerned that he must get Fr. Efia to make some definitive choices for
specifying the model. Both men meet at a local coffee shop, and after considerable
discussion, Voitech determines the following final details for Vegas Night at OLPS :
1. There will be an entry fee of $10 for all those attending. He feels this is a reason-
able charge that will not deter attendance. Given the array of wonderful ethnic
foods that will be provided by parishioners, this is really quite a modest charge
for entry. Additionally he feels that weather conditions are the most important
determinant for attendance.
2. The date for the event is scheduled for October 6th. He has weather information
forecasting the weather conditions for that October date: 15% chance of rain,
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