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want to use what we have learned in earlier chapters to help Fr. Efia understand the
congruency of his decisions and the goals he has for Vegas Night at OLPS . In other
words, the model should be user friendly and useful for those decisions relating to
his eventual implementation of Vegas Night at OLPS.
Let’s examine Exhibit 7.6 and determine what functions will be used in the
model. Aside from the standard algebraic mathematical functions, there appears
to be little need for highly complex functions. But, there are numerous opportuni-
ties in the analysis to use functions that we have not used or discussed before, for
example control buttons that can be added to the Quick Access Toolbar menu via
the Excel Options Customize tool menu— Scroll Bars , Spinners , Combo Boxes ,
Option Buttons , etc. We will see later that these buttons are a very convenient way
to provide users with control of spreadsheet parameter values such as attendee entry
fee and the value of a bet. Thus, they will be useful in sensitivity analysis.
So how will we begin to construct our workbook? The process steps shown in
Exhibit 7.6 represent a convenient layout for our spreadsheet model. It also makes
good sense that spreadsheets should flow either left-to-right or top-to-bottom in a
manner consistent with process steps. I propose that left-to-right is a useful orien-
tation and that we should follow all of our Feng Shui inspired best practices for
workbook construction. The uncertain weather conditions will be dealt with deter-
ministically, so the model will provide Fr. Efia outcomes for the event given one
of the three weather conditions: rainy, cloudy, or sunshine. In other words, the
model will not generate a weather event; a weather event will be assumed and
the results of that event can then be analyzed. The uncertainty associated with
the games also will be handled deterministically through the use of expected val-
ues . We will assume that precisely 20% of the attendees playing OTSD will win,
35% of the attendees playing WOD will win, and 55% of those playing BT will
win. Note that in reality these winning percentages will rarely be exactly, 20, 35,
and 55%, but if there are many attendees, the percentages should be close to these
values.
Exhibit 7.7 shows the layout of the model. For the sake of simplicity, I have
placed all analytical elements—brain, calculations, and sensitivity analysis on a sin-
gle worksheet. If the problem were larger and more complex, it probably would be
necessary to place each major part of the model on a separate worksheet. We will
discuss aspects of the spreadsheet model in the following order: (1) the basic model
and its calculations, (2) the sensitivity analysis that can be performed on the model,
and (3) the controls that have been used in the spreadsheet model (scroll bars and
options buttons) for user ease of control.
7.5.1 Basic Model
Let us begin by examining the general layout of Exhibit 7.7. The Brain is contained
in the range B1 to C13. The Brain for our spreadsheet model contains the values
that will be used in the analysis: Entry Fee, Attendance, Player (odds), and Bets.
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