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Exhibit 7.8 Fair (50–50) odds for OPLS and attendees
the fair odds simply mean that profit will only be achieved through Entry Fee, in
more complex problems the results of the analysis need not be as simple.
What if $50 is just too large a fee for Fr. Efia or the Archbishop? Is there some
practical combination of a larger (greater than $10), but reasonable, Entry Fee, and
some nearly fair odds that will result in $125,000? Exhibit 7.10 shows that if we
set odds cell C9 to 40%, C10 to 40%, and C11 to 50% for OTSD, WOD, and BT,
respectively, and we also set the Entry Fee cell B3 to $30, we can achieve the desired
results of $125,000 in cell K23. You can see that in this case the analysis is not as
simple as before. There are many, many combinations of odds for three games that
will result in the same profit. This set of conditions may be quite reasonable for all
parties, but if they are not, then we can return to the spreadsheet model to explore
other combinations.
As you can see, the spreadsheet model provides a very convenient system for per-
forming sensitivity analysis. There are many other questions that Fr. Efia could pose
and study carefully by using the capabilities of his spreadsheet model. For example,
he has not explored the possibility of also changing the cost of a bet from the current
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