Microsoft Office Tutorials and References
In Depth Information
Exhibit 7.20 Using a scroll bar for fractional values
All our work in this chapter has been related to deterministic models. Although
Fr. Efia’s model contained probabilistic elements (game odds, uncertainty in weather
conditions, etc.), we did not explicitly model these uncertain events. We accepted
their deterministic equivalents: expected value of gambling outcomes. Thus, we
have yet to explore the world of probabilistic simulation, in particular Monte
Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulation will be the focus of Chap. 8. It is a
powerful tool that deals explicitly with uncertain events. The process of building
Monte Carlo simulations will require us to exercise our current knowledge and
understanding of probabilistic events. This may be daunting, but as we learned in
previous chapters on potentially difficult topics, special care will be taken to pro-
vide thorough explanations and I will present numerous examples to guide your
learning.
This chapter has provided us with the essentials of creating effective models. In
Chap. 8 we will rely on what we have learned in Chaps. 1–7 to create complex
probabilistic models and analyze the results of our model experimentation.
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