Microsoft Office Tutorials and References
In Depth Information
Chapter 8
Modeling and Simulation: Part 2
Contents
8.1 Introduction ................................. 257
8.2 Types of Simulation and Uncertainty ...................... 259
8.2.1 Incorporating Uncertain Processes in Models ............... 259
8.3 The Monte Carlo Sampling Methodology ................... 260
8.3.1 Implementing Monte Carlo Simulation Methods ............. 261
8.3.2 A Word About Probability Distributions ................. 266
8.3.3 Modeling Arrivals with the Poisson Distribution ............. 271
8.3.4 VLOOKUP and HLOOKUP Functions .................. 273
8.4 A Financial Example—Income Statement ................... 275
8.5 An Operations Example—Autohaus ...................... 279
8.5.1 Status of Autohaus Model ....................... 283
8.5.2 Building the Brain Worksheet ...................... 284
8.5.3 Building the Calculation Worksheet ................... 286
8.5.4 Variation in Approaches to Poisson Arrivals—Consideration of
Modeling Accuracy .......................... 288
8.5.5 Sufﬁcient Sample Size ......................... 290
8.5.6 Building the Data Collection Worksheet ................. 291
8.5.7 Results ................................ 296
8.6 Summary .................................. 299
Key Terms .................................... 299
Problems and Exercises .............................. 300
8.1 Introduction
Chapter 8 continues with our discussion of modeling. In particular, we will discuss
modeling in the context of simulation , a term that we will soon discuss in detail.
The terms model and simulation can be a bit confusing because they are often used
H. Guerrero, Excel Data Analysis , DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-10835-8_8,
C
257
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
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