Microsoft Office Tutorials and References
In Depth Information
NORMINV()
Empirical Data
Balk
Conﬁdence Intervals
Coefﬁcient of Variation
Service Stock-out
Descriptive Modeling
Prescriptive Modeling
Average arrival Rate
Poisson Arrival Process
POISSON(x, mean, cumulative)
VLOOKUP
HLOOKUP
Normal Distribution
Bell Curve
Queues
Problems and Exercises
1. Name three categories of models and give an example of each.
2. Which of the following are best modeled by Discrete event or Continuous event
simulation:
a. The ﬂow of water through a large city’s utility system
b. The arrival of Blue-birds at my backyard birdfeeder
c. The number of customers making deposits in their checking accounts at a
drive-up bank window on Thursdays
d. The ﬂow of Euros into and out of Germany’s treasury
e. The change in cholesterol level in a person’s body over a 24 hour period
f. The cubic meter loss of polar ice cap over a 10 year time horizon.
3. Monte Carlo simulation is an appropriate modeling choice when point estimates
are not sufﬁcient to determine system behavior-T or F?
4. Give three reasons why rapid-prototyping may be useful in modeling complex
5. Risk proﬁles always have monetary value on the horizontal axis-T or F?
6. Create a risk proﬁle for the following uncertain situations:
a. A \$1 investment in a lottery ticket that may return \$1,000,000
b. A restaurateur’s estimate of daily patron trafﬁc through a restaurant where
she believes there is 30% chance of 25 patrons, 50% chance of 40 patrons,
and 20% chance of 75 patrons
c. A skydiver’s estimate of success or failure under particularly treacherous
weather conditions, where the skydiver has no idea of the outcome (success
or failure).
7. Create a simple simulation that models the toss of a fair coin. Test the results (%
Heads/% Tails) for sample sizes of 5, 10, 30, and 100. Hint-Use the RAND()
function.
8. Two uncertain events are related. The ﬁrst event occurs and effects the second.
The ﬁrst event has a 35% chance of an outcome we will call small and 65%
chance of a large outcome. If the ﬁrst outcome is small then the second event
will result in equal chances of 3, 4, 5, and 6 as outcomes; if the ﬁrst event is
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