Microsoft Office Tutorials and References
In Depth Information
Empirical Data
Confidence Intervals
Coefficient of Variation
Service Stock-out
Descriptive Modeling
Prescriptive Modeling
Average arrival Rate
Poisson Arrival Process
POISSON(x, mean, cumulative)
Normal Distribution
Bell Curve
Problems and Exercises
1. Name three categories of models and give an example of each.
2. Which of the following are best modeled by Discrete event or Continuous event
a. The flow of water through a large city’s utility system
b. The arrival of Blue-birds at my backyard birdfeeder
c. The number of customers making deposits in their checking accounts at a
drive-up bank window on Thursdays
d. The flow of Euros into and out of Germany’s treasury
e. The change in cholesterol level in a person’s body over a 24 hour period
f. The cubic meter loss of polar ice cap over a 10 year time horizon.
3. Monte Carlo simulation is an appropriate modeling choice when point estimates
are not sufficient to determine system behavior-T or F?
4. Give three reasons why rapid-prototyping may be useful in modeling complex
business problems.
5. Risk profiles always have monetary value on the horizontal axis-T or F?
6. Create a risk profile for the following uncertain situations:
a. A $1 investment in a lottery ticket that may return $1,000,000
b. A restaurateur’s estimate of daily patron traffic through a restaurant where
she believes there is 30% chance of 25 patrons, 50% chance of 40 patrons,
and 20% chance of 75 patrons
c. A skydiver’s estimate of success or failure under particularly treacherous
weather conditions, where the skydiver has no idea of the outcome (success
or failure).
7. Create a simple simulation that models the toss of a fair coin. Test the results (%
Heads/% Tails) for sample sizes of 5, 10, 30, and 100. Hint-Use the RAND()
8. Two uncertain events are related. The first event occurs and effects the second.
The first event has a 35% chance of an outcome we will call small and 65%
chance of a large outcome. If the first outcome is small then the second event
will result in equal chances of 3, 4, 5, and 6 as outcomes; if the first event is
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