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event, complete with food and games of chance. He has heard of Fr. Efia’s suc-
cess and would like to try his hand at raising money through games of chance.
Each parishioner is charged $10 to enter the event and is given 3 tokens for each
of the three games of chance: Wheel of Destiny, Bowl of Treachery, and the
Omnipotent 2-Sided Die. See the table below for the odds and payouts of each
game. The parishioners enjoy these events, but they are affected by the weather
that occurs each Sunday—Rain produces the lowest turnout; Fair weather the
largest turnout; Glorious sunshine results in the next largest turnout (see details
below). Help Father Aschbach estimate the yearly (52 Sundays) returns for the
events. Hint-You will have to decide whether, or not, you want to simulate the
play of each individual parishioner, or if you will simply use the expected value
of a player as we did before. If you can, and it will be much more difficult,
attempt to simulate the play of each parishioner in the simulation.
Wheel of Destiny
Bowl of Treachery
Omnipotent 2-sided Die
Type—Discrete
Type—Discrete
Type—Discrete
Return
Prob.
Return
Prob.
Return
Prob.
$10
0.4
$15
0.3
$100
0.35
–$10
0.6
–$20
0.7
–$40
0.65
40% chance a parishioner will win $10.
Weather Attendance/Probability
Rain
20
0.2
50 ∗∗
Fair
0.55
Glorious
35
0.25
∗∗ 55% chance 50 parishioners will attend.
 
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